Between the bad and the very bad: two scenarios for Donetsk and Luhansk. Part 1

Positive scenarios for the occupied part of the Donbas are unlikely, the region is threatened with desolation. The way it will look like is evidenced by the experience of PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic) and the Nagorno-Karabakh
 
The situation of people in the occupied areas of the Donbas continuously worsens. The situation threatens to turn into a long-drawn-out unresolved conflict with periodic escalations in the demarcation line, or in the frozen conflict in limbo. Any of the scenarios do not bode well for the local population. Is there a way out? 
 
Donbas today

Large-scale military operations in the east of Ukraine were interrupted in the early autumn of last year. According to the UN, for all time of the collision, since April 2014, about 9,000 people have been killed and another 21,000 – wounded. SavetheShildren International Organization that works on both sides of the front has calculated children's victims: at least 68 children were killed, 186 wounded.

The cease-fire arrangement has allowed localizing the conflict, reducing the intensity of the confrontation. But finally military operations are not stopped: the number of recorded violations of the state of ceasefire is constantly growing. Messages arrive each day from the front line on spot firings, application of mortars and Grad rockets, sabotage groups raids, on killed and wounded people including civilian casualties.

Human rights activists note that people in the occupied areas cannot even hope for social, humanitarian and political stability. Guarantees of basic civil rights are not discussed at all. "According to international organizations, now 270,000 people on territory not controlled by the Government of Ukraine and another 800,000 living along the line of contact are in need of humanitarian aid. All of them require constant support from humanitarian agencies and NGOs to meet the basic necessities of life, "- said to LІGA.net coordinator for the development of the NGO Donbas SOS Olga Gvozdeva.
UN and OSCE monitoring missions agreed with each other that a suspended state of ceasefire had reduced civilian casualties to almost zero. But at the same time, they noted that the situation of the inhabitants of the occupied territories worsened in many respects. Hundreds of people - nobody knows the exact number - are missing or are detained by armed gangs who call themselves "Ministry of State Security". As a rule, "there are "get to the basement" the political and religious "dissenters", and entrepreneurs who have been unable to agree with the new powers that be, and those who just happened to be at the wrong time and in the wrong place". 

In early February, a new wave of abductions has run down the occupied territories. Armed militants have started to remove even those previously considered inviolable, who tried to remain neutral. For example, in Donetsk, there was abducted Marina Cherenkova, the leader of the volunteer organization "Responsible citizens" that had helped the civilian population in the occupied territories, and the well-known religious scholar Igor Kozlovsky.
 
"There is no guarantee none of your rights in the occupied territories. Simply put, even if you do not agitate publicly for a united Ukraine, your life is always in danger there. You may always be imprisoned "in the basement", be maimed, your property or life can be deprived", - says to  LІGA.net the head of East Center of public initiatives Vladimir Shcherbachenko.

Militants terrorize the local population: persecute and illegally detain civilians practicing tortures, forced labor, restrict freedom of movement, not to mention the freedom of assembly, expression, religion and access to information. Many do not have the possibility to receive medical care, and the children have no the possibility to go to school.

Please follow the link to read the 2nd part of the story

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