In is impossible to get into the same water twice, even if the river is the Kalmius River in Donetsk. Maybe, it is possible only in the directives of the Kremlin curators of “L-DPR” who have regularly appeared from Moscow.
The situation in the Donbas has considerably changed for the year that has passed since the time of signing the first Minsk Agreement.
The changes have taken place in the key spheres, in particular, the socio-economic one. This happened due to several factors. The sharp fall of oil prices (the main factor) in combination with sanctions of the West have worsen the economic situation in the RF and narrowed the opportunity for Moscow to maneuver in the Donbas. The fighting efficiency of the Ukrainian Armed Forces considerably has increased. The West is united in the attitude to the actions of Russia in the Donbas.
Only taking these changes into account, one should assess the claims of militants’ leaders of the two separatists’ enclaves about the repetition of the last autumn “trick” with the election in “L-DPR”.
How Kremlin geese “saved” Minsk Part 1
Self-made crisis and deus ex machina Putin
According to pre-election claims of “DPR” – “LPR” leaders, ceasefire alone is not enough for Moscow to strengthen its position at the negotiations on the situation in the Donbas.
And the Kremlin will add its efforts aimed at saving Minsk- 2 from a collapse which may have happened if “L-DPR” held the election on September 18 – November 1 on the principles defferent from those registered in the Minsk Agreements.
And then, president Putin, as an ancient Greek deus ex machine, saves Minsk-2 using “some” influence which he has on the heads of the two republics: he could convince “L-DPR” leaders to refuse to hold elections on October 18-November 1 to use one more chance to reach a compromise with Kyiv which has to hear, at last, the “voice of the Donbas” with its “unseen self-sacrifice”.
The whole population of the Donbas rejected neither more nor less their right to self-determination on their “sovereign territory” in the name of striving for a compromise with Kyiv. The curtain. Applause.
This is an approximate Kremlin game story from the beginning of the artificial crisis with the separatists’ elections, and then the heroic resolving the crisis.
Its key elements will be pronounced by president Putin at the two, important for us, international events of the next week – the UN General Assembly and the summit of the “Norman Four”.
So, president Putin will present his story about “saving Minsk by Kremlin geese” with the help of Lavrov, head of his Ministry of Foreign Affairs, at one of these events.
“Passing between the drops” across the Minsk field
After that, with new force and complete support of the European Union, he will impose his variant of peacekeeping on Kyiv. The main principles of it are in small print in the Notes of the Set of Measures aimed at fulfilling the Minsk Agreements made in February:
- amnesty (exemption of punishment, prosecution, and discrimination) for the people involved in the events taking place in separate areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- right to language self-determination;
- participation of the bodies of local self-government in appointing heads of prosecution office in separate areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- opportunity for central bodies of the executive power to conclude agreements on economic, social, and cultural development of separate areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions with respective bodies of local self-government;
- the state renders support to socio-economic development of separate areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- support on the part of central power bodies to transborder cooperation of separate areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk region with regions of the Russian Federation;
- arrangement of people’s militia units, by the permission of local administration to keep public order in separate areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- powers of local council deputies and officials elected at extraordinary elections held under the Act of Verkhovna Rada cannot be stopped.
If, thanks to all these perturbations with the elections, Minsk-2 survives, we will have to use all the opportunities contained in it as well the help of the USA and the NATO in order to block this Moscow scenario as the Kremlin, supported by the EU, is making more and more attempts “to push” the uncontrolled territories as they are here and now back to Ukraine. With destroyed economy and infrastructure, not loyal and even openly hostile population, without Ukrainian institutions working there, without tools for Kyiv to control the territories, with a lot of weapons in the hands of militants, etc.
And if Ukrainian power is not tough enough to answer loudly to this pressing with the genius words of passed-away ex-speaker of Parliament Ivan Plushch, “They want to shove something which cannot be shoved. Why are you shoving it if it does not get inside?”, then we will have to use a recipe from another elder of Ukrainian politics, Leonid Kravchuk, first president of independent Ukraine, and manage to “pass between drops” across the Minsk field: to preserve the country, to protect our national interests, and to outplay Russia in determining the final recipe of the solution of the problem in the Donbas.
Andriy Miselyuk for The UP
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