In is impossible to get into the same water twice, even if the river is the Kalmius River in Donetsk. Maybe, it is possible only in the directives of the Kremlin curators of “L-DPR” who have regularly appeared from Moscow.
The situation in the Donbas has considerably changed for the year that has passed since the time of signing the first Minsk Agreement.
The changes have taken place in the key spheres, in particular, the socio-economic one. This happened due to several factors. The sharp fall of oil prices (the main factor) in combination with sanctions of the West have worsen the economic situation in the RF and narrowed the opportunity for Moscow to maneuver in the Donbas. The fighting efficiency of the Ukrainian Armed Forces considerably has increased. The West is united in the attitude to the actions of Russia in the Donbas.
Only taking these changes into account, one should assess the claims of militants’ leaders of the two separatists’ enclaves about the repetition of the last autumn “trick” with the election in “L-DPR”.
Dissonance with “peacemaking.RU”
Contrary to the claims made by the two “republic” heads last year, this year claims are blackmail. Pure verbal blackmail, at the level of claims which have no chance to be implemented in accordance with the terms determined by them – October 18 in “DPR” and November 1 in “LPR”.
This is the conclusion made on the basis of the very nature of the second Minsk Agreement which, according to the wording of the former head of the Sweden Ministry of Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt, was nothing but a chance for Putin to get out of the crisis which he has happened to get in. It was the purpose of the Agreement”.
In this situation, when first “DPR” then “LPR” announced the elections, the reaction of some Ukrainian politicians and experts is quite surprising, when they seriously considered this step as a failure of Minsk-2 comparing them with the elections in “L-DPR” in 2014 and collapse of Minsk-1.
However, the influence of the elections in the two “republics” on the first Minsk Agreement is considerably exaggerated. The causes of Minsk-1 implementation failure are quite different as it was quite evident that it needed inevitable rebooting three months before the signing of Minsk-2.
Is it worth to perceive seriously loud claims made by militants’ leaders as something that has real potential to influence the alignment of forces and the situation in the region, without taking into consideration the two main factors?
The first one is that the tactics of the militants is completely determined and its implementation is strictly controlled by Moscow.
The vivid example confirming that is the facts of ceasefire by militants according to the terms fixed by Moscow – September 1 and the replacement of “war hawk” Purgin to Pushylin, who is ready for a compromise at Minsk talks.
The second factor is the eve of important international events which included the events in the Donbas into their agenda. The Kremlin is clearly positioned as an actor actively contributing to the peaceful political settlement and strictly adhering to Minsk-2.
That is why the claims about separatists’ elections in the Donbas made by militants’ leaders completely controlled by Kremlin sounded as dissonance to the demonstrative “peacemaking”.
This open violation of Minsk-2 contradicts the present Kremlin political course and has no chances to be implemented in the present conditions. It will be deveiled in the near future as there are lots of convenient reasons for Moscow to make such a maneuver.
At the forthcoming next week events – UN General Assembly (Putin goes there on September 28) and the summit of the “Norman Four” (October 2) and then at the EU decision-making on the anti-Russian sanctions prolongation – Moscow will try to prove its sincere desire to resolve the conflict in the Donbas as quickly as possible.
As a proof of the claim, the ceasefire from September 1 initiated by Russia may be presented.
This argument has exclusive “armor-piercing force” for Europeans. They are tired of the one-and-a –half-year bloodshed in the East of Ukraine. They will support any force which will stop this bloodshed.
This month the Kremlin plays the role of this force. However, it is not a secret for Europe that militants stopped firing in the zone of the conflict because of the order from Moscow: it supplies militants with armaments and ammunition; it maintains militants’ combat capability and decides when to advance and when to ceasefire.
Andriy Miselyuk for The UP
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