Donbas forecast: tempest with the prospect of “Smerches”. Part 1

Impudent behavior of Russia proves once again the fact the it is impossible to trust Russian partners and its proxies in anything.

This has already become a sad ritual and a depressing tendency: as soon as participants of Minsk talks have decided upon a ceasefire, a new wave of aggression and militants’ attacks on the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces immediately begins in the Donbas.

At the beginning of the year, Ukrainian and foreign analytical centres predicted that constant tension along the demarcation line would be preserved, there would be constant shellings, battles, attempts to oust each other from the “grey zone”, localities and infrastructure objects seizure. Still, according to the analysts’ opinion this could not lead to full-scale hostilities and Russia’s sending its troops and the whole spectrum of weapons to Ukraine.

Possibly, this opinion was formed under the influence of the so-called “ceasefire regime”. On December 22, 2015, the Trilateral Contact Group once again agreed upon introducing the ceasefire in the ATO zone starting at midnight, December 23, 2015.

During the weeks after the ceasefire agreement had been signed, the number of militants’ shellings and provocations against the Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the record. The number of deaths on both sides started growing again.

There is no possibility of political solution now and the signs of growing danger in the conflict zone are becoming more and more serious. This can mean endangering not only Ukraine, but the whole European continent, which is already weakened by the refugee crisis caused by the ongoing Syrian conflict, as well.

It is not a secret that the agreements reached during the Minsk talks are not observed by either Russia or “Donetsk/Luhansk people’s republics”. A whole range of direct and indirect signs which are observed by both Ukrainian intelligence and the OSCE monitors proves this. 

The monitors themselves are already tired of reporting the cases when heavy machinery and weapons of Russia-backed Donbas militants were pulled away from the demarcation line in the daytime and brought secretly back to the conflict areas at night, located and hid there.

Hidden relocating and accumulating of weapons and military machinery are in progress. In February only, several dozens of “Grad” and “Uragan” multiple rocket launch systems, and more than two hundred thousand tons of ammunition were sent to Donbas militants. The potential is accumulated in the key tactic directions such as Mariupol, Debaltseve, Mospine and other localities close to the demarcation line.

In February, as if teasing the “ceasefire” declared in Minsk, Russia-backed militants continued provocative shellings of the Ukrainian Armed Forces positions, these attacks also included using heavy artillery (banned by Minsk). On some days the number of shellings reached more than one hundred a day. Sabotage-reconnaissance groups also become active in the Anti-Terrorist Operation zone (though often they suffered heavy losses).

The question that emerges is clear: why Russia-backed militants do all these preparations in military sphere?

Probably, it is high time now to try to explain what is going on. “Borysfen-Intel” Group experts have their own ideas as for the nature and aims of the militants’ actions.

The first one is to preserve the fact of constant military and political pressure, which is especially important before talks or forums organized for solving the existing conflict.

The second one is to conduct a classical reconnaissance done by means of a battle. The aim is to discover weak points in the defense line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Of course, the data collected will be taken into account by the enemy while planning further offenses (military operations) in the necessary tactic directions. 

The third one is to preserve the state of of constant pressure along the whole demarcation line. The goal is to constantly exhaust the Ukrainian Army physically and psychologically, to provoke Ukrainian servicemen to return fire (so that it will be possible later to report to the representatives of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission about this, accusing the Ukrainian side of violence).

The fourth and the most important one. The aggressor is secretly conducting preparation for a full-scale offensive against Ukraine. Their time, direction, objects, forces and means involved will be agreed upon by the aggressor and its proxies.
 
Donbas forecast: tempest with the prospect of “Smerches”. Part 2

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