Donbas forecast: tempest with the prospect of “Smerches”. Part 2

Impudent behavior of Russia proves once again the fact the it is impossible to trust Russian partners and its proxies in anything.

Donbas forecast: tempest with the prospect of “Smerches”. Part 1

These conclusions can be proved by the actions of the Russian side which has recently transformed 12th commandment of the Southern Military District into the Centre of the Territorial Armed Forces of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation with ts direct subsidiaries (“the Donetsk people’s republic militia” with the headquarters in Donetsk and “the Luhansk people’s republic militia” with the headquarters in Luhansk).

Today there are rumours that a new reserve with the headquarters in Rostov-on-Don or Novocherkassk is to be formed as well.

The peculiarity of these mobilization plans is is that all the regiments are made of volunteers and mobilized troops who are mostly ethnic Ukrainians from the Crimea, Donbas, Kuban and other regions bordering on Ukraine.

So, on the one hand, readiness to obey the Minsk Agreements is declared, while on the other hand, the military potential of these regiments which belong to Southern Military District is growing.

This activity, which also includes military drills where offensives and counteroffensives were practised, means that the enemy has not refused from plans  to enlarge the territory under control in the Donbas and the “ceasefire” is used to prepare for military confrontation, possibly a full-scale one.

The latest news can mean that Russian marines may be legalized in the east of Ukraine and that the possibility of activisation of sabotage-reconnaissance actions in the coastal area may increase. Equally, it can mean that a full-scale paratrooper marine operation can be conducted in the area.

Recent Putin’s words about training military aviation to conduct operations in extreme conditions of a modern war deserve special attention as well.

Even a preliminary analysis of this statement requires thorough understanding and answers to a whole range of questions. Why must this training be conducted? For some action, but who will be the aim of it? What modern war and in which area is meant? We should also bear in mind that the enemy has not used military aviation in Ukraine yet (but for intelligence purposes).

One more alarming sign of Russia’s preparation for a military offensive in the near future is is the latest information that local hospitals situated near the front line were forced to send patients home and to create free wards, beside, mobilization of medical staff has recently been declared in the “Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics”.

As for the military troops located in the occupied Crimea, according to different sources, the number of servicemen there is currently from twenty-three to twenty-five thousand people (land, air and marine forces) and there is a tendency that the present number will grow. Nuclear weapons carriers, long-range coastal missile complexes,  anti-aircraft systems, more marine and underwater troops are going to be located there as well.

The Russian military commandment has recently (in the past few months) increased its troops along the border between the occupied Crimea and Ukraine (paratroopers and special forces were sent there). The explanation is that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is increasing its presence in Eastern Europe. Military drills conducted by these regiments include tasks aimed at offensive and counteroffensive actions.

Thus, it is absolutely possible to say that that currently there are all the signs which mean that Russia is getting ready for active armed hostilities in the Donbas and in the summer the possibility of resorting to this step is going to grow.

At the same time, the amount of weapons and ammunition accumulated by both sides of the conflict along the demarcation line is currently big enough to destroy all military potential of both parties.

This conclusion is sad for Ukraine, first of all. Russia has never counted its war losses. It hides this information from its own citizens, this data is classified even if it concerns people’s and the death toll numbers thousands. Even when it numbers dozens of thousand it will not change anything for zombified people.

The logical question Ukraine has to answer is how it can protect its troops to minimize losses. To answer this question it is necessary to know there exactly the pro-Russian offensive can take place? The answer is: it can happen anywhere and at any time. 

“Borisfen Intel” experts are interested in the more precise and down-to-earth information.

Putin will never stop armed hostilities in the Donbas and pull back the troops as this will not only immediately signify the end of his “hybrid policy” but also his own political (and possibly physical) death. Therefore, there is no doubt that the Russian leader will try to deteriorate the situation and prolong the conflict.

ukrinform.ua

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