Ukraine and Donbas. To talk not to lose

Ukraine risks to lose its citizens who live on the occupied Donbas territory. This can happen in 3-5 years if the government does not start talking to its population. This is the conclusion experts of “Donbas” Factory of Thoughts” made after analyzing the survey conducted among the residents of controlled and non-controlled territories of the Donetsk region. Currently, the total number of people who live in the occupied Donbas is 2.7 million people. The term 3-5 years was calculated taking the experience of other countries into account. Usually, the main land loses all connections with an annexed territory in 5 years’ time.

Dmytro Tkachenko, head of an analytical centre, emphasizes that the Ukrainian Government has distanced itself from the citizens who remain on the occupied territory. However, people who remain there and residents of the rest of Donbas still have a lot in common.

“People on both sides of the demarkation line are united by quite a strong regional identity, the need to be protected by a “strong leader” of a “strong state” and the importance of cultural and economic links with Russia”, says Tkachenko.

Two years after the Donbas was seized, 18% of people call themselves “DPR citizens”.

“Firstly, residents of the occupied territory are in a closed informational space where they hear a lot of propaganda against Ukrainian state. Secondly, they lose links to Ukrainian state institutions, they have to cross checkpoints to get to the territory which is controlled by Ukraine. As a result, they stop identifying themselves with the state of Ukraine”, says analyst Yelizaveta Rekhtman.

A physical border, which consists of checkpoints, an institutional border which means lost connections with Ukrainian state, an informational border which manifests itself in limited access to Ukrainian mass media — all these factors together with aggressive “DPR” propaganda and lack of clear position from the Ukrainian government has lead to the fact that 28% of the residents of the occupied territory feel fear at the thought about returning under Ukrainian control.

In Dmytro Takchenko’s opinion, the Ukrainian government still has not built any communication with these people and therefore they do not see any reason to accept it.

“The Ukrainian authorities must say what they offer and how they see the situation when Ukraine returns the control over the occupied territories. Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities must regularly address the Donbas residents who live on the occupied territory. They must explain: “We care about you, you are important to us”, “We know that there were some mistakes”... They must recognize those mistakes and say: “We failed to protect you but we are thinking about you.” The authorities should also explain those people what will happen when Ukraine returns to these territories and that they must not be afraid. The authorities must offer them a clear mechanism which will help them realize that their future is only in Ukraine and re-intergation is the only possible solution. I have not even said a word now about the fact that the economic potential of the region is being destroyed. People who live on the occupied territories must realize that their future is possible only in a united country”, says Tkachenko.

In the expert’s opinion, it will be possible to return the residents of the occupied territoies into the Ukrainian information space if a way to neutralize the broadcast of Russian and separatist TV channels is found.

“We observe a high level of propaganda and we will not be able to broadcast Ukrainian channels on this territory soon. We must neutralize a TV tower in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. It broadcasts over nearly the whole territory of the Donetsk region. The second step should be elimination of analogous TV broadcast on the occupied territories and, at the same time, we should expand the zone of Ukrainian TV broadcast on the occupied territory”, says Tkachenko.

Experts think that if the state promises to satisfy economic needs of the residents of the occupied territories, it can be a bridge in building communication with them. 

Dmytro Tkachenko emphasizes that most of all Ukrainians who live in the Donbas value safety and financial prosperity and it is especially important now to make the residents of the occupied territories realize that “L/DPR” cannot survive by themselves.

“The only possibility for the Donbas to prosper is to be a part of united Ukraine. “L/DPR” will not be able to develop successfully in economic sphere and in military sphere it will be impossible without Russia. When we manage to explain all this to people who live on occupied territories, they will forget about their irrational beliefs”, thinks the expert.

Yulia Taratuy

New service "Explain Ukraine". This is a daily mailout of three articles which were written about the situation in the Donbas by Donbas journalists and translated into English. Honest vision of people who work in the field is unbiased and fresh which is crucial in the world which is full of desinformation and propaganda. We try to share this vision in out daily mailout.  You can subscribe here.