Donbas forecast: tempest with the prospect of “Smerches”. Part 3

Impudent behavior of Russia proves once again the fact the it is impossible to trust Russian partners and its proxies in anything.

Donbas forecast: tempest with the prospect of “Smerches”. Part 1

Donbas forecast: tempest with the prospect of “Smerches”. Part 2

It would be really good if the participants of Prague talks could hear and take into account this thought (but for Russian representatives who will, in their turn, do their best to hide it from the partners during the talks).

In our opinion, there are several ways of the development of the events. They depend of different circumstances.

Variant number one. Russia will start limited offensive actions so that its troops and the troops backed by it would be able to gain control over the whole territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The variant will remain highly possible until the local “elections” which “Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics” leaders are going to hold on the territory which is controlled by them.

The second variant. Russian-backed forces and Russian troops will conduct tactic operations in Donetsk and Mariupol directions, a marine tactic operation will be conducted in the same direction with the help of occupational forces from the Crimean Peninsula.

If the conditions are favourable, the aggressor can try to continue successful operations in Mykolaiv and Odesa directions with the further prospect of getting as far as Transnistria. The second variant is possible in the spring or summer, on the eve of July 31 when “Donetsk package” of sanctions has to be either lifted or extended. 

The third variant is full-scale armed hostilities (a full-scale war) which is a combination of the second variant with Russian attacks in Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv directions. The whole spectrum of weapons and all kinds of troops (land, marine and air) will be used, missile strikes are also possible.

This variant is possible if Russia loses the war in Syria (which is inevitable!), if the unity of Western European countries as for Russia and Ukraine is lost, and if problems in internal policy, social and economic sphere become more serious in Ukraine. 

Therefore, the possibility of a full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine is still high.  Actually, today Russia is deeply involved into the civil war in Syria and all its attempts to be equal to the USA or Europe and to renew its potential as a “world leader” have little effect. Besides, today Russia faces a lot of dangerous challenges  for its national security from both Asia and Europe.

Thus, we can make a depressing conclusion.

Donbas. Even more than that, Putin’s policy of constant, strong and purposeful pressure on Ukraine can become even stronger to hamper the processes of the country’s integration into European and North Atlantic communities.

Military confrontation and violence along the demarcation line which separates Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces in the Donbas will continue making the search for a political solution extremely difficult. At the same time, the potential for the escalation of the conflict in the Anti-Terrorist Operation zone is preserved and is even increasing.

Thus, the Russian Federation does not and is not going to refuse from its plan to seize and occupy the south of Ukraine and the rest of its eastern regions. It is not going to refuse from the cynical and ambitious plan to get full political, military, economical and governmental control of the whole territory of Ukraine.

It is possible that voices calling Ukraine for political solution, for ceasefire, for elections and stabilization will sound from Paris. However, it is hardly possible that these efforts will lead to peace. It is possible though that foreign political leaders will face the cunningness and betrayal of the Russian aggressor and Ukraine, as usual, will have to pay for their mistakes with its own sons’ blood.

As a rule, the truth is very simple. It is not the duty of our foreign partners to preserve the Ukrainian State. This is a task for our unity, decisiveness and political will to show that we are able to repel the impudent enemy.

We must not have any illusions. The aggressor can be stopped only by Ukraine and its Armed Forces. They and all of us, actually, should be strong enough to stop the enemy. And the aggressor will be stopped only when it is drowned in its own losses and blood.

The prospect is horrifying but unfortunately there is not another one currently. Ukraine is once again on the verge.

Yuriy Radkovets, PhD, vice president of an independent analytical centre for geopolitical research “Borysfen Intel”, lieutenant-general of the reserve.

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